- Our forecast of a 3.0% ten-year yield is materializing in short order due to faster growth and signs of life for inflation
- However, near-term economic data will contain noise that will not be indicative of anticipated 2018 growth trends
- Delayed 2017 tax refunds will depress already slowing retail sales, an indication that February data may be weak
- Increased spending after last fall’s hurricanes will mean the pace of household investment is likely to slow in Q1
- Corporate hiring and investment is continuing apace and will likely bolster growth throughout 2018
Looking at the economy at the moment is reminiscent of the story about a fisherman who came across a genie. The genie grants the fisherman three wishes. His first wish is to catch the biggest fish. You can probably predict what happens -- the very large fish swallows the fisherman whole. End of story. Download the PDF to read more.