U.S. Economy: Careful what you wish for! | KPMG | US

U.S. Economy: Careful what you wish for!

U.S. Economy: Careful what you wish for!

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Chief Economist

KPMG in the U.S.

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  • Our forecast of a 3.0% ten-year yield is materializing in short order due to faster growth and signs of life for inflation
  • However, near-term economic data will contain noise that will not be indicative of anticipated 2018 growth trends
    • Delayed 2017 tax refunds will depress already slowing retail sales, an indication that February data may be weak
    • Increased spending after last fall’s hurricanes will mean the pace of household investment is likely to slow in Q1
  • Corporate hiring and investment is continuing apace and will likely bolster growth throughout 2018

Looking at the economy at the moment is reminiscent of the story about a fisherman who came across a genie. The genie grants the fisherman three wishes. His first wish is to catch the biggest fish. You can probably predict what happens -- the very large fish swallows the fisherman whole. End of story. Download the PDF to read more.

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