Q3 GDP figures October 2012: “Not exactly a recession, but not exactly a recovery either” says KPMG Chief Economist

Q3 GDP figures October 2012: “Not exactly a reces...

KPMG Chief Economist Andrew Smith comments on the figures released by the Office of National Statistics.

Also on KPMG.com

press release

Commenting on today’s preliminary third quarter UK GDP figures released by the Office of National Statistics, KPMG Chief Economist, Andrew Smith, said:  “It’s not exactly a recession, but not exactly a recovery either. “

The 1 percent rise in GDP is welcome, but just as the second quarter was distorted downwards the third quarter was distorted upwards. Overall, the underlying trend looks pretty flat.

The Jubilee holiday held back output in the spring while the Olympics temporarily boosted activity over the summer. “While technically we are now out of the double dip recession, it would be unfortunate if attention was distracted away from the big picture.

Output continues to do no more than bounce along the bottom as it has for the past two years. GDP is still over 3 percent below its pre-recession peak and with lingering domestic headwinds, the threat of an escalation of the crisis in the euro-zone and only slow progress in rebalancing the economy the recovery is set to remain fragile. “With this in mind the Chancellor may wish to take the opportunity to review the fiscal stance in December’s Autumn Statement.” 

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Margot Cowhig

KPMG Corporate Communications

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E: margot.cowhig@kpmg.co.uk  


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Notes to editors.

About KPMG

KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP and operates from 22 offices across the UK with over 11,000 partners and staff. The UK firm recorded a turnover of £1.7 billion in the year ended September 2011. KPMG is a global network of professional firms providing Audit, Tax, and Advisory services. We operate in 152 countries and have 145,000 professionals working in member firms around the world. The independent member firms of the KPMG network are affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"), a Swiss entity.  KPMG International provides no client services.

This article represents the views of the author only, and does not necessarily represent the views or professional advice of KPMG in the UK.

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