Federico Santi of Eurasia Group discusses why the eventual shape of Britain’s exit deal will depend as much on the dynamics within the EU as any decision taken in London.
- Eurosceptic parties are likely to hold gains but not make a major breakthrough which leads to further exits
- Italy represents the perhaps the biggest risk to Eurozone cohesion over the medium term
- French and German elections in 2017 could lead to better coordination between these two core Eurozone members
- Some kind of bridge agreement is likely to be needed to allow the UK continued access to the Single Market until negotiations are concluded – but getting one is not a given.