Hard Brexit’ or ‘Soft Brexit’
We have known for a while that ‘Brexit means Brexit’, but what are the chances the UK will get the Brexit it wants? Taking into account the UK’s current position in Europe, existing previous agreements and power plays, we evaluate the outcome the UK is likely to get.
The 256 words of Article 50 are longer and more complex than the Offside Rule. But what is clear, is the decision to withdraw from the EU must be made in accordance with the the UK’s own constitutional requirements. We wager when the UK will press the trigger.
The UK-ASEAN opportunity
Since the Brexit vote, warnings of economic catastrophe have failed to materialise and governments in the ASEAN region, such as Singapore have said Brexit’s economic impact on them is likely to be modest. We highlight the ASEAN countries we expect London to focus on doing business going forwards, and what ASEAN could also gain.
- Investing in UK plc: Many are expecting UK plcs to become targets for overseas buyers. We explain the do’s and don’ts for both sides.
- Tax and the impact on foreign companies: We share the three main areas (customs, VAT and corporation taxes) which multinationals will need to consider very soon.
- Financial services: What would happen if the UK lost its passporting rights? And how would that loss affect the ASEAN region, its banks and businesses?
- Real Estate: Despite a bumpy start for UK property stocks and real estate funds, all does not seem lost for the most sophisticated and best-researched property market in the world.
- Infrastructure: Slower pipeline today, but that may help in long run: In the short term, construction will probably be one of the worst affected by Brexit, but now seems like an opportune time for ASEAN to maintain their interest.
- Leisure and hospitality: Buoyed by tourist dollars: If the UK continues to attract tourists and capital from Asia there is every chance the economy will weather Brexit and even emerge stronger.
- Airlines: In the longer term, the UK’s growth will depend far more on connections to the fastest growing parts of the world, such as South East Asia.
- Energy and Commodities trading: While it’s business as usual for ASEAN-UK energy and commodity firms trading in the EU for now, KPMG signposts the medium-term and long-term requirements and strategic decisions to consider.