KPMG “Bakış”, which is published every three months, provide information on main macroeconomic indicators in Turkish and global economy, along with brief commentary. The topic of the eighth issue of Bakış is “Macro Trends in Turkish and Global Economy”.
Although the world economy entered 2017 with an agenda full of geopolitical tensions and political risks, expectations for a better performance than 2016 were high. Developments in global commerce and financial markets throughout the year warrant these positive expectations. A positive climate reigns with regards to the economic outlook of not only developed countries such as the USA and European Union member states, but also developing countries, including Turkey.
A quick look globally, the tensions between the USA and North Korea, the stressful process of forming a new coalition after the German elections, calls for independence in the Spanish autonomous community of Catalonia, escalating tensions in the Middle East and at our border reveals the risks that could further increase global tension in the near future. We need to bear in mind that there may be severe reactions in the financial markets when data coming from the real economy, which seems set on a good course for now, tends to be weakened by effects such as aforementioned developments.
The Turkish economy, on the other hand, rounded off the first half of 2017 with a strong growth rate of 5.1% continuing to be one of the fastest growing OECD countries.
The recovery in the global economy over the last nine months is expected to continue in the last quarter of 2017. However, the fact that the fault lines in world politics are becoming more distinct as we enter 2018 is a risk factor that should not be kept out of sight.