KPMG “Bakış”, which is published every three months, provide information on main macroeconomic indicators in Turkish and global economy, along with brief commentary. The topic of the sixth issue of Bakış is “Macro Trends in Turkish and Global Economy”.
Following 2016, which was a tough year for the world economy and especially for developing countries, it is expected that global economies will rebound supported by rising oil and commodity prices. Countries such as Russia and Brazil, whose economies have shrunk over the past two years, are expected to grow again in 2017, while the United States, which has grown below expectations this year, is expected to grow stronger this year. The upsurge in oil and commodity prices will also push up dollar-based global trade growth. According to estimates, it is expected that world trade will increase by around 10% to $17.7 trillion if fuel prices float at $55 p/ barrel throughout the year.
While the world economies are on a recovery trend overall, 2017 gives us more reason for hope for the Turkish economy in the aftermath of 2016 which saw rising diplomatic tensions with Russia and Iraq, a wave of terror events shaking the country, and a coup attempt. With the constitutional referendum behind us, and deferred spending and investment decisions taking effect, we anticipate a strong domestic demand from the second quarter, and while there is a noticeable revival in the markets in the first quarter thanks to government loans, a strong export performance points to a positive contribution to the growth of net exports.