“Bakış”, which is published every three months, provide information on main macroeconomic indicators in Turkish and global economy, along with brief commentary.
Following the first quarter of the year we are receiving mixed signals from both the national and global economy, although positive signals are stronger. In emerging economies, particularly in China, Brazil and Russia, the trend is downwards, whereas in the EU and Japan, the trend is flat. The USA, on the other hand, is mixed up between an economic recovery, triggering a process of interest rate hikes, and a slowdown in interest rate hikes in order not to disrupt the recovery in the economy and not to increase the interest rate gap with other economies too much.
The current account deficit declined to 4.4% of the GDP. The most important factor in this decline was the decrease in exports due to falling commodity prices. In the absence of structural steps that would create results in the short term, the current account deficit may start rising again, starting from next year. On the other hand, we may see a higher current account deficit in 2016 because of the decline in tourism and transportation revenues.