We expect sustainable growth in the private health care market up to 2019 — by 5.9% a year on average. The total increase as compared to 2016 may reach 19%, with the legal commercial health care segment having the predominant share (57%). At the same time, the share of the shadow segment will decrease insignificantly and may amount up to 23% of the total volume of the commercial health care market in 2019.
According to KPMG Health Care & Pharmaceuticals experts, in 2017-2019 prices for medical services will continue to outpace the consumer price index. This factor, even in the context of recovery of the Russian economy, will hold back the growth of demand for commercial health care.
Under the pressure of macroeconomic factors, the structure of the paid medical services market will undergo changes. Due to declining availability of medical care in the compulsory health insurance sector (especially in the sphere of primary care) and in view of decreasing insurance coverage under corporate voluntary health insurance policies, patients will move to the legal commercial health care segment. The share of the legal commercial health care in the structure of the paid medical services is expected to reach 57% in the coming years. In 2016 the growth rates of this segment already exceeded the same of the voluntary health insurance (6.7%) and the shadow sector (7.3%).
In general, it can be said that the voluntary health insurance segment in its present form has reached the saturation point, as demand from large corporate customers is not expected to increase in the absence of economic growth. “The growth in the voluntary health insurance segment can be driven by insured individuals if they get more attractively priced offers. First of all, this can be the case for employees of medium-sized enterprises who have been deprived of their voluntary health insurance policies. Some of these patients have moved to the legal commercial health care segment or the shadow segment where costs are traditionally lower than in other segments, though appearance of attractive voluntary health insurance programs in the market can change their consumer behaviour,” says Victoria Samsonova, Head of Health Care & Pharmaceuticals, KPMG in Russia and the CIS.
Despite unfavourable economic conditions, there are positive trends in the development of the Russian health care. For instance, the number of private health care centres operating in the compulsory health insurance system continues to grow dynamically and not only in Moscow, St. Petersburg or Kazan, but also in such constituent entities of the Russian Federation as Chuvashia, Penza Region and Udmurtia – several dozens of private health centres were operating in the compulsory health insurance system in each of these regions in 2016. Moreover, public–private partnership (PPP) investment projects in the sphere of health care continue to be implemented. According to the Institute for PPP Development, the health care sector is one of the most active in this sphere – it accounts for 10% of the total volume of private investment attracted for PPP projects.
The full results of the “Research on Development of the Private Medical Services Market in the Russian Federation in 2017-2019” are available here.