The Trump effect | KPMG | CA

The Trump effect

The Trump effect

C-Suite 45: Canadian business leaders discuss the impacts the Donald Trump presidency will have on North American businesses.

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The Trump effect

Perceptions on the positive and negative implications of a Donald Trump presidency dominate the latest C-Suite Survey. While most Canadian executives believe the Trump Administration will be a positive for Canadian business in key sectors, as well as the US economy overall, the same level of confidence is not present regarding the future trade and political impacts for both the Canadian and global economies at large. Going into 2017, there is no improvement in the outlook for Canada this quarter compared to last.

Top Highlights

Growth in the US and key sectors

  • 85% of C-Suite Executives think the Trump Administration will have a positive impact on the US economy over the next two years. Most (65%) now believe the political climate for business in the US will be better over the next five years (compared to 24% from the previous quarter).
  • 24% expect the US economy to grow strongly in 2017, a 15-point improvement in outlook from earlier this year.

Impacts on Canadian businesses and economy

  • 69% agreed the Administration will be supportive of Canada’s oil and gas sector. Most (60%) expect the price of Canadian crude oil to be higher by the end of 2017, with oil and gas sector executives even more certain of this.
  • 52% of C-Suite expect a Republican Trump Administration will be positive for their business – especially among resource executives (86% for oil & gas) and manufacturing (62% in automotive).
  • Only 14% expect the Trump Administration will have a negative impact on their businesses over the next two years. Conversely, 50% expect the Trump Administration will have a negative impact on Canada’s economy overall.
  • C-Suite is divided on whether or not Canada should suspend carbon pricing policy. 52% believe the election of a Republican Administration and congress means Canadian governments should suspend the introduction of national carbon pricing.
  • Outlook for the Canadian economy in unchanged this quarter and only modestly positive. There is no consensus around whether Canada’s dollar will slide further or stay close to its current value.

Repercussions for global trade

  • 30% of executives very worried about the impacts of politics on trade, and almost none is unconcerned.
  • Most believe Donald Trump will make good on his promise to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA. 43% of C-Suite thinks it is possible there will be new tariffs on Canada.
  • 83% said it is very or somewhat likely that a Trump administration will take trade measures aimed against China. 59% believe his administration will likely lead to a slow-down in global trade.

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